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The skew: Even more negative with equal size seats Conservative vote share minus Labour vote share required for each outcome. Dotted lines indicate theoretical boundaries. Data sources: NCP, Electoral Calculus
Analysis

Boundary changes – the devil is in the detail

19th May 2015 | Matt Singh |
More
Tory underestimate within 0.4pts of 1992 miss
Media

Matt Singh on Polling Matters ELECTION SPECIAL: The inquest

16th May 2015 | Matt Singh |
More
The structural bias has never gone away
Analysis

10 days on, a look back at the "Shy Tory" prediction

16th May 2015 | Matt Singh |
More
Why were the polls wrong? By NCP's Matt Singh, who predicted the polling failure the day before
Analysis

Why were the polls wrong? An initial postmortem

11th May 2015 | Matt Singh |
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Number Cruncher Politics Final Call Polling Roundup - Election Day
Roundup

Final call polling roundup

7th May 2015 | Matt Singh |
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Real votes look rather different from polls... Incumbent popular vote lead at election (y) versus linearly-weighted averages of mid term NEV leads (x). Data source: Rallings and Thrasher
Analysis

Is there a shy Tory factor in 2015?

6th May 2015 | Matt Singh |
More
Number Cruncher Politics Daily Polling Roundup 5th May
Roundup

Daily polling roundup 5th May

5th May 2015 | Matt Singh |
More
Number Cruncher Politics Daily Polling Roundup 4th May
Roundup

Daily polling roundup 4th May

4th May 2015 | Matt Singh |
More
Number Cruncher Politics Daily Polling Roundup 3rd May
Roundup

Daily polling roundup 3rd May

3rd May 2015 | Matt Singh |
More
Number Cruncher Politics Daily Polling Roundup 2nd May
Roundup

Daily polling roundup 2nd May

2nd May 2015 | Matt Singh |
More
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