The last weekend before the election saw a raft of polls, with four new national surveys and constituent country polling from all around the UK. Opinium/Observer again had the Tories fractionally in front:
Opinium/Observer: CON 35 (+1) LAB 34 (+1) LIB 8 (-1) UKIP 13 (=) GRN 5 (-1) Dates 28th-30th N=1,956 Tabs http://t.co/7mL0AWXtma #GE2015
— NumbrCrunchrPolitics (@NCPoliticsUK) May 2, 2015
ComRes polled jointly for the Independent on Sunday and Sunday Mirror, but unusually, by phone. A tie in a phone poll is good for Labour, and this is the second in a row from ComRes. There are some signs too that the Greens are starting to do a bit better in phone polls – 7% is a joint all-time high with ComRes (recall too that MORI had them on 8% on Thursday).
ComRes/Indy/Mirror: CON 33 (-2) LAB 33 (-2) LIB 8 (+1) UKIP 13 (+2) GRN 7 (+1) 28th-30th N=1,002 Writeup http://t.co/hzxFjHtzNo #GE2015
— NumbrCrunchrPolitics (@NCPoliticsUK) May 2, 2015
Survation's poll for the Mail on Sunday had Labour 3 points ahead. To correct the tweet, there is no method change for the headline figure itself:
Survation/Mail (method chg): CON 31 (-2) LAB 34 (=) LIB 8 (-1) UKIP 17 (+1) GRN 4 (+1) 1st-2nd N=2,128 Tabs http://t.co/HuOgsvUZI3 #GE2015
— NumbrCrunchrPolitics (@NCPoliticsUK) May 2, 2015
Finally among GB-wide polls, YouGov/Times, completed earlier today, showed the Conservatives a point ahead, but with Cameron the clear winner of Question Time.
YouGov/Times: CON 34 (=) LAB 33 (-2) LIB 8 (=) UKIP 13 (+1) GRN 5 (=) Fieldwork 1st-2nd Daily roundup to come #GE2015 #newsnight
— NumbrCrunchrPolitics (@NCPoliticsUK) May 2, 2015
YouGov/Times (Question Time winner): Cameron 42 Miliband 26 Clegg 13 #GE2015
— NumbrCrunchrPolitics (@NCPoliticsUK) May 2, 2015
YouGov also polled for the Times in Scotland:
YouGov/Times (Scotland): SNP 49 (=) CON 15 (-2) LAB 26 (+1) LIB 7 (+2) UKIP 2 (-1) GRN 1 (=) #GE2015 #Scotland2015
— NumbrCrunchrPolitics (@NCPoliticsUK) May 2, 2015
As well as for Plaid Cymru in Wales. You can read Roger Scully's analysis here.
YouGov/Plaid Cymru (Wales) CON 26 (=) LAB 39 (-1) LIB 6 (=) PC 13 (+1) UKIP 12 (-1) GRN 3 (-1) 28-30th N=1,146 Tabs http://t.co/9mVWmOxXXJ
— NumbrCrunchrPolitics (@NCPoliticsUK) May 2, 2015
And in Northern Ireland, LucidTalk’s panel forecast was unchanged from the previous edition, with the only change from 2010 being Belfast East being retaken by the DUP from the Alliance Party:
Lucid Talk (NI panel forecast, chgs vs 2010) DUP 9 (+1) SF 5 (=) SDLP 3 (=) IND 1 (=) ALL 0 (-1) UUP 0 (=) http://t.co/qTx1bMsWH9 #GE2015
— NumbrCrunchrPolitics (@NCPoliticsUK) May 2, 2015
And finally, for those who still think that Gordon Banks getting food poisoning changed the result of the 1970 election:
ICMYI, here's Anthony Wells on why the #RoyalBaby will not affect #GE2015 http://t.co/TPzUdaTKQh pic.twitter.com/rs331pniFU
— NumbrCrunchrPolitics (@NCPoliticsUK) May 2, 2015
Tomorrow there will be plenty of polls in the field, but none scheduled for release apart from YouGov/Sun.
