It’s the unlikely voters wot won it

NCP’s Matt Singh has written for Bloomberg View about the EU referendum outcome, polling and forecasts. The key finding is that turnout patterns strongly suggest that the net impact of the 2.8 million additional votes, as compared with last year’s general election, entirely explains the Leave outperformance of expectations.

You can read the article on the Bloomberg website or on a Bloomberg terminal.

The piece also gets a writeup in Britain’s best selling newspaper, The Sun, which famously splashed “It’s The Sun Wot Won It” after the Conservatives’ surprise victory in the 1992 general election (which would also have been the last time that many Brexit voters would have voted).





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