Today saw a bit more polling activity than expected. Newcomer BMG Research produced a poll for May2015, showing a three-point Conservative lead. The trouble with interpreting new polls – and this is in no way criticism of BMG – is that until you've had a few, there's no way of knowing house effects. That said, the level of detail in the tables is impressive. Its methodology is basically the same as ICM, but online.
BMG/May2015: CON 35 LAB 32 LIB 11 UKIP 14 GRN 3 Fieldwork 27th April N=1,013 Tabs http://t.co/sR8jLCykvZ #GE2015
— NumbrCrunchrPolitics (@NCPoliticsUK) April 29, 2015
ComRes's phone poll for the Mail went against the recent trend, showing a tie:
ComRes/Mail: CON 35 (-1) LAB 35 (+3) LIB 7 (-1) UKIP 11 (+1) GRN 6% (+1) Fieldwork 27th-28th N=1,005 #GE2015 pic.twitter.com/UMKwsoYoYB
— NumbrCrunchrPolitics (@NCPoliticsUK) April 29, 2015
YouGov showed a very slight change from last night, with the Conservatives edging back ahead:
YouGov/Sun: CON 35 (+1) LAB 34 (-1) LIB 9 (=) UKIP 12 (=) GRN 4 (=) Fieldwork 28th-29th Daily roundup to follow #GE2015 #newsnight
— NumbrCrunchrPolitics (@NCPoliticsUK) April 29, 2015
In Scotland, Ipsos MORI/STV found a record 34-point SNP lead, with Labour down to 20 points:
Ipsos MORI/STV (Scot): SNP 54 (+2) CON 17 (+5) LAB 20 (-4) LIB 5 (+1) UKIP 1 (=) GRN 2 (-2) 22-27th N=1,071 Writeup http://t.co/LqRcAwLqzH
— NumbrCrunchrPolitics (@NCPoliticsUK) April 29, 2015
Lord Ashcroft revisited three marginal seats. All three still appear to be close contests, but as the Lord points out himself, there are signs of tactical voting in favour of Nick Clegg in Sheffield Hallam and against Nigel Farage in Thanet South.
#Ashcroft seats: still close! Leaders on a knife-edge. Looks like tactical voting to help Clegg/stop Farage #GE2015 pic.twitter.com/1wWonYpW9M
— NumbrCrunchrPolitics (@NCPoliticsUK) April 29, 2015
ComRes also published a battleground poll For ITV, which had a 3.5% CON to LAB swing. This is bigger than Lord Ashcroft has been finding recently – but then their methodologies are quite different. It’s also considerably smaller than the England and Wales swing in today’s ComRes national poll.
We also got some detail from on the broadcasters’ exit poll. 1992 aside, they’ve generally been pretty accurate on seats. Even in 1992 it was vastly more accurate than the standard opinion polls. NCP understands that the “tiny room” team will have access to opinion polling on postal voting this time (which can’t be published until the polls have closed).
I’m lucky enough to have been asked to join Matchbook’s “GE2015: The Experts Bet“. You can keep up to date by following @MattSingh_:
Great to be part of @TeamMatchBook's "#GE2015: The Experts Bet"! Commentary from here and via NCP (@NCPoliticsUK) https://t.co/QZF6O17Q0G
— Matt Singh (@MattSingh_) April 29, 2015
A hint of the next MORI poll? Only phone pollster to show a Labour lead in the last two months… https://t.co/MfT1z7fAwl #GE2015 #bbcdp
— Matt Singh (@MattSingh_) April 29, 2015
Tomorrow starts early with Ipsos MORI’s pre-election briefing, with heavy hints having been dropped (see above tweet) about the GB poll that they’ll be unveiling. The word “corker” has been used and the language suggests it’s good for the Conservatives. We’ll also get Panelbase and YouGov/Sun, plus the Question Time special.
