Today's sole GB-wide poll was YouGov for the Sun, which continues to show a very close race:
YouGov/Sun: CON 34 (+1) LAB 35 (=) LIB 8 (=) UKIP 13 (=) GRN 5 (=) Fieldwork 14th-15th NCP Daily roundup to follow #GE2015 #newsnight
— NumbrCrunchrPolitics (@NCPoliticsUK) April 15, 2015
The YouGov/ITV/Cardiff Uni Welsh Westminster poll showed little change among the GB-wide parties – the big story there is Plaid's 3pt rise. Roger Scully's analysis is here.
YouGov/ITV/Cardiff Uni (Wales): CON 26 (-1) LAB 40 (=) LIB 6 (=) PC 12 (+3) UKIP 13 (=) GRN 4 (-1) 13th-15th April N=1,143
— NumbrCrunchrPolitics (@NCPoliticsUK) April 15, 2015
ComRes polled 14 CON-LIB battleground seats in the South West for ITV news. They found a huge 13-point swing from the Lib Dems to the Conservatives in these 14 seats enough to turn them all blue on a uniform swing.
ComRes/ITV (SW England, changes from 2010): CON 44 (+4) LAB 13 (+7) LIB 26 (-22) UKIP 10 (+6) GRN 5 (+3) Dates 10th-12th N=1,005 #GE2015
— NumbrCrunchrPolitics (@NCPoliticsUK) April 15, 2015
Just to put this into some sort of perspective, Monday’s ICM/Guardian poll had CON 39 LIB 8 – an 8.9% swing. Obviously the Lib Dems had far more votes to start with in the South West, so had more to lose. Even so, this poll was a big surprise and was met with a fair amount of skepticism. But the wording was comparable to Ashcroft, and arguably even more pro-incumbent:
ComRes wording is somewhat similar to Ashcroft constituency question, but refers to the MP (albeit not by name) pic.twitter.com/oxawvH7lqe
— Matt Singh NCP (@MattSingh_) April 15, 2015
Populus showed “in” and “out” to be virtually neck-and-neck, with a huge number of undecided voteres, in an EU membership poll for the FT:
Populus/FT (EU membership): IN 40 OUT 39 Writeup http://t.co/Dq7q8MO3S1 #GE2015 #wato
— NumbrCrunchrPolitics (@NCPoliticsUK) April 15, 2015
From now on I’ll be splitting analysis/commentary between the main NCP handle and @MattSingh_. Be sure to follow for the latest!
Follow @MattSingh_
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And finally:
Not surprising, if who RTs what is any guide! #tweetthepollsyoulike pic.twitter.com/waXsKyG0yo
— NumbrCrunchrPolitics (@NCPoliticsUK) April 15, 2015
Tomorrow is the challengers debate – Survation and possibly other pollsters will have snap reaction polls, plus the daily YouGov/Sun poll. We may also get ComRes/Mail and Ipsos MORI/Evening Standard.
