Daily polling roundup 27th April

The final full week of this parliamentary term kicked off with the now familiar lineup. Populus/FT showed another three-point Labour lead:

ICM has now shown five consecutive Conservative leads, longest Tory streak from a single pollster since December 2010. Their latest poll for the Guardian showed a three-point advantage:

Lord Ashcroft showed an even bigger Conservative lead of 6 points, his biggest since 11th January:

He also published some polling of UKIP target seats, which backs up last week’s ComRes/ITV battleground poll – UKIP is trailing in all four of them, and in three cases, down at least 7 points since Ashcroft’s last survey there. In Castle Point their share is unchanged at 36%, but they now trail Tory incumbent Rebecca Harris by five points.

YouGov/Sun showed a one-point Conservative lead, its first for six days. Earlier I’d suggested that the divergence between online and phone polling, if anything, seemed to be increasing. YouGov’s shift may be a sign that online polls are starting to move in the same direction, but it’s far, far too soon to conclude that, particularly as the picture among other online pollsters remains fairly ambiguous. So it seems that either there’s a been widening of the phone-online gap and tonight’s YouGov is just noise, or that there’s been a broader improvement for the Conservatives. We just don’t yet know which.

We also got two Scottish polls. TNS showed relatively little change, though note the fieldwork window:

Survation’s more up-to-date poll for the Daily Record found the SNP’s advantage increasing further. This is now the fourth poll to show the nationalists on more than half of the Scottish vote:

Worth a watch: BBC’s Panorama took a look at the election with FiveThirtyEight‘s Nate Silver and Election Forecast‘s Chris Hanretty.

And finally:

Tomorrow we should get GB polls from TNS and YouGov/Sun. I’ve also heard that Ipsos-MORI has been in the field – if it’s a public poll, it’s presumably for Thursday’s Evening Standard, but this close to polling day, everything is subject to change.





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