Daily polling roundup 22nd April

Today was a quiet polling day with only one national poll. YouGov/Sun showed a continued close race, with Labour fractionally ahead this time:

We also got a ComRes/ITV battleground poll, this time looking at UKIP targets. The aggregate levels and changes from 2010 were as follows:

On average, UKIP trails 18 points behind the Conservatives, a swing of about 11%. The list of ten seats, which was much discussed, came from a list publicly briefed by the party last year, with a couple of alterations It included both Thanet South and Thurrock, but not the two by-election gains. What if it’s been diluted by the inclusion of what Rob Ford called “Second-tier targets”?

The Last three ComRes/ITV/Mail national polls have, on Average, shown the Tories on 35 (-2) and UKIP on 11 (+8). In the unlikely event that half of the seats in this poll showed only the same changes as the rest of the country, the other five would still have an average swing of “only” 17%, short of the 20% swing needed across the battleground. In reality the swings are unlikely to diverge even this much, because UKIP is still likely to be doing better in its weaker target seats than national average.

And finally, a reminder that correlation is not causation – your vote has no bearing on whether your team gets promoted or relegated:

Tomorrow we should get YouGov/Sun and Panelbase, with other polls possible. Lord Ashcroft will be releasing further marginals polling “later this week” but he hasn’t specified a day. Last week it was late on Friday. I’ll also have an article out for the London School of Economics, about the divergence between online and phone polls, and between newer polls and those with a longer track record. Be sure to follow for the latest!

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