Today we got one national poll, with YouGov for The Sun showing a close race once again, Labour with their noses just in front. YouGov’s fieldwork would have been split before and after the Labour non-dom policy announcement, so it would have had some chance to have an effect, but there may be some left to come. We’ll see over the coming days.
YouGov/Sun:
CON 34 (+1)
LAB 35 (=)
LIB 8 (=)
UKIP 13 (-1)
GRN 5 (=)
Fieldwork 7th-8th
Daily roundup to come!
#GE2015 #newsnight
— NumbrCrunchrPolitics (@NCPoliticsUK) April 8, 2015
We also got the latest batch of Lord Ashcroft’s marginals polling, this time revisited ten red-blue marginals:
Ashcroft swings MUCH smaller… On average I make this only a 2% swing from CON to LAB pic.twitter.com/aWmfzvg6bN
— NumbrCrunchrPolitics (@NCPoliticsUK) April 8, 2015
The average swing was 2%, the smallest yet, but because these seats were chosen for their relatively small swings, the average swing may be slightly misleading. That said, when Ashcroft last polled these seats (in most cases last October) the average was 2.6%, so the overall swings are smaller, but not hugely so.
Comparison of Ashcroft CON-LAB marginals and Ashcroft England crossbreak (CON to LAB swing). Trend continues #GE2015 pic.twitter.com/brMlPmzGTP
— NumbrCrunchrPolitics (@NCPoliticsUK) April 8, 2015
Tomorrow we should get the monthly Ipsos MORI/Evening Standard poll, along with the daily YouGov/Sun GB poll. Following the Scottish leaders debates, we’re also expecting a YouGov/Times Scottish poll.
