Following the budget, we got three new polls tonight. Opinium changed their methodology this year, so this is not a like-for-like comparison, but for what it's worth this the biggest Conservative lead since their poll started in May 2011. Their fieldwork was at pretty much the same time as Populus, so the same caveat applies – it’s all post budget, but partly before Thursday’s press coverage, so it might not fully reflect the budget’s impact.
Opinium/Observer: CON 36 (+3) LAB 33 (-2) LIB 7 (=) UKIP 14 (=) GRN 6 (-1) Fieldwork 18th-19th N=1,979 Tabs http://t.co/HuzE7pkeke #GE2015
— NumbrCrunchrPolitics (@NCPoliticsUK) March 21, 2015
We also got one with hot-off-the-press fieldwork from Survation. Changes in my tweet are since their February poll, which was for a different newspaper:
Survation/Mail: CON 30 (+2) LAB 34 (=) LIB 10 (=) UKIP 17 (-2) GRN 3 (-1) Dates 20th-21st N=1,008 Tabs http://t.co/ZKoQSqPVAe #GE2015
— NumbrCrunchrPolitics (@NCPoliticsUK) March 21, 2015
And finally YouGov:
YouGov/Sunday Times: CON 33 (-2) LAB 35 (+2) LIB 8 (=) UKIP 14 (+1) GRN 5 (-1) Fieldwork 19th-20th #GE2015
— NumbrCrunchrPolitics (@NCPoliticsUK) March 22, 2015
So still a rather mixed picture. I’ll post further analysis tomorrow once all the tables are out.
