Daily polling roundup 20th March

Today’s only poll was Populus online, which showed Labour regaining the three-point lead they had last Friday, after a tie on Monday. Populus pollster Laurence Stellings tells NCP that the fieldwork for this which was entirely after the budget, though not necessarily after respondents had heard about it (update 16:05: Populus’s Top Ten Most Noticed, the fieldwork for which was done together with that of the poll, showed that only 28% had noticed the budget). So a similar timeframe to YouGov’s poll, which showed a three-point shift in the opposite direction, with the Conservatives moving from a one-point deficit to a two-point lead:

So the picture thus far is mixed, but that’s nothing new around budgets:

So, frustrating as it may be, we can’t draw any firm conclusions until we get more evidence over the coming days. One thing we do have in the meantime is the detail of YouGov’s poll for the Sun, which repeated some earlier questions and asked about specific measures.

By varying amounts, the repeat questions showed changes from last week that were all consistent with a positive reaction to the budget. On the individual measures, all found majority support (mostly large majorities) except for the cuts in alcohol duty. People tended to think to think the budget was fair (42 to 27) but most thought it wouldn’t make much difference to themselves and their families (53%) or the country (45%). Those that thought it would make a difference were more to the positive side, though only narrowly in the self/family question.

There are no more polls expected today. Tomorrow we get Opinium’s weekly survey for the Observer and YouGov for the Sunday Times. Given all of the above, it wouldn’t be surprising to see continued Tory leads, but as always, the bigger question is whether the move will be sustained.

And finally, it seems that even voter registration got eclipsed this morning. Thankfully it recovered shortly thereafter…

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