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Analysis Archive

CLP nominations aren't a perfect indicator, but... Percentages of 2010 Constituency Labour Party nominations and first preference member votes. Data sources: LabourList, Wikipedia
Analysis

Corbyn's chances are FAR better than odds suggest

20th July 2015 | Matt Singh |
More
Image: Delbert/HD Shock
Analysis

20 percent of British people are liars

16th July 2015 | Matt Singh |
More
Here we go again... No lead over Yes on headline referendum voting intention. Data source: Wikipedia
Analysis

Why are the polls getting it wrong in so many countries?

5th July 2015 | Matt Singh |
More
This does not look like herding Counts of pollster/party cominations (total 55) at each sigma ±0.5, based on final call polls normalised to party means and to poll/party standard error.
Analysis

Is there evidence of pollsters herding?

25th June 2015 | Matt Singh |
More
BES series looks more like volatility than late swing Daily spreads, Conservative minus Labour vote shares.
Analysis, Roundup

As the investigation begins, a summary of pollsters' views on the failure

19th June 2015 | Matt Singh |
More
2015 - the same territory as 1970 Eve-of-election polling minus popular vote share, Conservative minus Labour error. Data source: Mark Pack
Analysis

One confirmed cause of the polling pig's ear – some people WERE telling porkies

22nd May 2015 | Matt Singh |
More
The skew: Even more negative with equal size seats Conservative vote share minus Labour vote share required for each outcome. Dotted lines indicate theoretical boundaries. Data sources: NCP, Electoral Calculus
Analysis

Boundary changes – the devil is in the detail

19th May 2015 | Matt Singh |
More
The structural bias has never gone away
Analysis

10 days on, a look back at the "Shy Tory" prediction

16th May 2015 | Matt Singh |
More
Why were the polls wrong? By NCP's Matt Singh, who predicted the polling failure the day before
Analysis

Why were the polls wrong? An initial postmortem

11th May 2015 | Matt Singh |
More
Real votes look rather different from polls... Incumbent popular vote lead at election (y) versus linearly-weighted averages of mid term NEV leads (x). Data source: Rallings and Thrasher
Analysis

Is there a shy Tory factor in 2015?

6th May 2015 | Matt Singh |
More
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