Is there about to be another general election?

This weekend wasn't really about politics, but we did get a new voting intention poll from Opinium in the Observer, which put the Conservatives four points ahead, a pretty sharp widening from Opinium, whose numbers are usually among the least volatile. Since a few people asked, the poll was done Tuesday-Wednesday, so it’s very unlikely to have anything to do with the royal wedding.
Opinium also asked a number of questions about Brexit. Anthony Wells has put out a helpful summary, but the electorate remains divided, unsure about where parties stand and unimpressed with the way they’re handling Brexit, although Theresa May comes off slightly better than Jeremy Corbyn.
There was also a report in the Times suggesting that some Tory hardliners could force an early election if they don’t get their way on the customs union. This hasn’t been taken all that seriously (this from Katy Balls is good), but what if the unnamed hardliners are serious? It’s worth considering whether the Conservative lead – which at a maximum suggests a small Tory majority – would still be there if the government was no-confidenced by some of its own MPs and voters were again dragged to the polls to settle an internal Tory row. I’m not sure the public would be impressed…
Lewisham by-election nominations close this afternoon, with the main parties (plus the Greens, UKIP and WEP) putting up candidates. Labour selected Lewisham deputy mayor Janet Daby on Saturday. Daby is seen as the moderate choice, which takes away one potential attack line for the Lib Dems – previous Labour by-election defeats to the centrists have involved controversial candidates, whereas this time, the Lib Dem attacks will have to focus on Brexit alone. Labour are heavy favourites here.
Ahead of the royal wedding,YouGov asked whether people supported or opposed having a monarchy, and found 69 per cent supported it and 21 per cent opposed. Support does increase with age, but is high even among younger adults. Meanwhile, Joe Twyman of Deltapoll asked whether people were more interested in the wedding or the FA Cup final

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