Amber Rudd’s resignation as Home Secretary has already – and it’s barely 7am as I write this – prompted a couple of questions on what this might mean for the polls and the local elections this week. In each case, the answer is the same – there have been so few national voting intention polls lately that it will be very, very hard to unpick the effect of Rudd’s resignation from everything else (though I’m sure that won’t stop people trying).
YouGov had a poll out on immigration over the weekend, and once again, an overwhelming majority think it’s too high – 63 per cent answered “Much too high” or “A little too high”, which is down slightly on a year ago.
Two resources worth looking at – On London’s Borough Elections Guide by Lewis Baston and Dave Hill, which is incredibly detailed and great value, and Democratic Audit’s ever-useful Democratic Dashboard.
Today sees the annual Political Studies Association media briefing. This is normally where profs Rallings and Thrasher unveil their projections. But this time (presumably since the event is so late) they won’t, but it will probably throw up some interesting analysis anyway. John Curtice, who will be speaking on the PSA panel, wrote up his thoughts in in the Independent, including that Labour picking up Wandsworth or Westminster councils “looks like a tall order”.