My apologies for the lack of briefings recently – there has been quite a bit of work going on behind the scenes, which will hopefully be of interest once all is revealed…
As some of you will know, I’ve joined the FT as election analyst for the general election – you can see my articles here, including the most recent on Labour’s bounceback, from today’s print edition. NCP will continue in parallel in the meantime.
Elsewhere there’s some interesting stuff from Ben Clements on the Catholic vote and Roger Scully on Wales. The latest polls have been relatively stable, with most showing Tory leads in the upper teens. The regional picture is even more interesting, though, and Matt Smith has had a look at that.
Today we have a GfK/Business Insider poll:
CON 48 (+7)
LAB 28 (=)
LD 7 (=)
UKIP 5 (-7)
GRN 3 (-3)
SNP 6 (+1)
— NumbrCrunchrPolitics (@NCPoliticsUK) May 17, 2017
The fieldwork was again done over a couple of weeks until the weekend – GfK’s previous poll had a 13-point Conservative lead, which was at the narrower end of the range, whereas this one is towards the wider end of the range. It’s too soon to be sure what GfK’s house effect is, but overall their numbers tell very much the same story as the other polls.