You probably knew that already, but it’s St Valentine’s Day so no harm in reminding. Yesterday we got YouGov’s weekly poll for the Times, which essentially reverted to where it was a fortnight ago, with a 16 point Conservative lead. Full figures were:
CON 40 (=)
LAB 24 (-2)
LD 11 (=)
UKIP 14 (+2)
GRN 4 (=)
SNP 5 (+1)
— NumbrCrunchrPolitics (@NCPoliticsUK) February 13, 2017
The poll was in the field before last week’s PMQs, which were widely viewed as good for Corbyn and Labour.
One point to note in the tables – Labour’s support among CD2Es (20 per cent) puts it slightly below UKIP’s (23 per cent) and its own among ABC1 (26 per cent).
This sort of Tory-Labour gap seem to be the new normal for polls that use turnout weighting, as does having the Lib Dems (just) into double digits.
Why is Labour not getting much love? Nick Tyrone of Radix has an interesting analysis of why. But Stephen Bush thinks the party’s next date with the electorate might not end in disaster (spoiler: it comes down to organisation). Some thoughts of my own to follow…
I’m not sure what novelty polling (if any) we’ll get today, but in the next few days we should be getting another Northern Irish poll ahead of their election two weeks on Thursday.