Two new voting intention polls out today – as I mentioned in the briefing YouGov/Times had a 17-point Tory lead and a broadly positive reaction to the Prime Minister’s speech. And as I mentioned in yesterday’s briefing, it probably pays to be a bit cautious about reaction very soon after any kind of news story.
YouGov/Times:
CON 42 (+3)
LAB 25 (-3)
LD 11 (=)
UKIP 12 (-1)17th-18th Jan
N=1,654
Writeup https://t.co/akFSqmt0FP— NumbrCrunchrPolitics (@NCPoliticsUK) January 19, 2017
We also got a poll from Ipsos MORI for tonight’s Evening Standard, showing Labour and the Conservatives both gaining, so the gap between the two only increased by a point since last month, to 12 points. MORI has tended to find stronger support for Labour and weaker support for UKIP than other pollsters, and that pattern continues. 6 per cent is UKIP’s lowest share in any poll since October.
Ipsos MORI/Evening Standard:
CON 43 (+3)
LAB 31 (+2)
LD 11 (-3)
UKIP 6 (-3)N~1,000
Writeup https://t.co/vHIsgKxP4J— NumbrCrunchrPolitics (@NCPoliticsUK) January 19, 2017
But this poll was actually conducted before Tuesday, meaning that it won’t reflect any impact from the speech. So while these topline numbers (and a reduction in the gap between Corbyn and May in satisfaction ratings) are interesting, they may be a bit out of date already…
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