The first poll since Theresa May's Brexit speech is in, and it shows an increased Conservative lead. YouGov's poll for the Times has:
CON 42 (+3)
LAB 25 (-3)
LD 11 (=)
UKIP 12 (-1)
— NumbrCrunchrPolitics (@NCPoliticsUK) January 19, 2017
A 17-point margin is right back to the highs of late last year, when the Tory lead peak at 18 points with Ipsos MORI – the last time the Conservatives were that far ahead while in power was at the peak of the mid-80s stock market boom (just before black Monday) in October 1987.
There aren't any tables out just yet, but the Times writeup from Sam Coates contains a few supplementaries, which fit with the topline figures – by 55 to 19 the public thinks it would be good for Britain, and by 47 to 28 they have confidence in the PM to negotiate "the sort of deal she says she wants". There are no personal ratings in the report, but a hint that they've moved in the same direction.
Meanwhile, Keiran Pedley and Adam Drummond have had a chat about the May speech on Polling Matters:
Today we may (or may not) get MORI's monthly phone poll for the Evening Standard. There's only one council by-election, at Norton (Bromsgrove), which voted 60 per cent Conservative in 2015 so – without a Lib Dem on the ballot – ought to be a straightforward Tory hold.