YouGov/Times and Ipsos MORI/Evening Standard

Two new voting intention polls out today – as I mentioned in the briefing YouGov/Times had a 17-point Tory lead and a broadly positive reaction to the Prime Minister’s speech. And as I mentioned in yesterday’s briefing, it probably pays to be a bit cautious about reaction very soon after any kind of news story.

We also got a poll from Ipsos MORI for tonight’s Evening Standard, showing Labour and the Conservatives both gaining, so the gap between the two only increased by a point since last month, to 12 points. MORI has tended to find stronger support for Labour and weaker support for UKIP than other pollsters, and that pattern continues. 6 per cent is UKIP’s lowest share in any poll since October.

But this poll was actually conducted before Tuesday, meaning that it won’t reflect any impact from the speech. So while these topline numbers (and a reduction in the gap between Corbyn and May in satisfaction ratings) are interesting, they may be a bit out of date already…

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