Brexit means…

We got another voting intention poll yesterday, with YouGov recording another slight uptick in Labour support to 28 per cent (+2), putting them 11 points behind the Conservatives who were unchanged on 39 per cent.

Labour's uptick didn't come from improving its retention rate of 2015 voters (which remains at 56 per cent of all voters including don't knows), but rather from churn within the don't knows and an increase in stated likelihood to vote. That may be a sign that its supporters are a bit more enthusiastic (and therefore perhaps keener to respond to polls) but on the other hand, this is the point in the electoral cycle when oppositions are usually at their strongest, so Labour genuinely regaining some lost ground wouldn't be a surprise either.

Brexit is back at the top of the political agenda ahead of the Prime Minister's speech later today. Some YouGov polling suggested voters were particularly unsure of Labour's position on immigration.

The poll also asked another variation on the "hard versus soft" Brexit question, and found a narrow lead for soft Brexit, once those wanting no Brexit at all were included. In Wales, Roger Scully had more from his poll that was mentioned previously, suggesting Wales leaning towards a hard Brexit, but this was yet another question wording, so it isn't comparable to the one in the GB-wide poll.

There are only really two clear takeaways from all of the polling we've had since the referendum. Firstly that there's no clarity around what people want from Brexit, because the answer varies wildly depending on how the question is worded, so finding out what people want would require a big shift one way or the other, or another referendum. And secondly, that people really don't want another referendum…

Voters in Northern Ireland are heading back to the polling booths though, and the Stormont election has been confirmed for 2nd March. LucidTalk will conduct three polls at fortnightly intervals during the campaign, with publication on 30th Jan, 13th Feb and 27th Feb .

And I understand that Ipsos MORI will have some data out today on Brexit. To be continued…

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