Today Greece goes to the polls to vote on the EU's bailout offer. The last ten or so polls have suggested a very close race – in fact the average of the last eight has been an exact tie. If that sounds familiar…
But are the polls right? At Greece’s general election this year, the polls underestimated Syriza’s lead by a point or two – a pretty respectable performance. And while “shyhess” is always a threat, evidence of it is harder to come by.
One thing we do know about referenda is their tendency to produce a late swing towards the status quo. But that swing may already have happened – it’s hard to be say with such a short campaign. There are no true exit polls, but “on the day” polls will be published once voting has finished.
We’ll know the answer soon enough.