What a day! Tonight was the ITV Leaders Debate, and four polls came out showing a mixed (and incredibly close) picture:
Average of all four #leadersdebate polls:
DC 22
EM 21.5
NC 8.5
NF 21
NB 4
NS 20
LW 2.5
NCP daily roundup: http://t.co/B4W4Ck551C
#GE2015
— NumbrCrunchrPolitics (@NCPoliticsUK) April 2, 2015
YouGov (winner):
DC 18
EM 15
NC 10
NF 20
NB 5
NS 28
LW 4
N=1,100
#GE2015 #leadersdebate
— NumbrCrunchrPolitics (@NCPoliticsUK) April 2, 2015
YouGov poll ratings out of 10: Sturgeon 6.7, Cameron 5.9, Miliband 5.9, Clegg 5.5, Farage 5.5, Wood 5.1, Bennett 4.7 https://t.co/4B3oQUW6bs
— Anthony Wells (@anthonyjwells) April 2, 2015
Full ComRes/ITV (winner):
DC 21
EM 21
NC 9
NF 21
NB 5
NS 20
LW 2
#GE2015 #leadersdebate
— NumbrCrunchrPolitics (@NCPoliticsUK) April 2, 2015
ICM/Guardian (winner):
DC 24
EM 25
NC 9
NF 19
NB 3
NS 17
LW 2
#GE2015 #leadersdebate
— NumbrCrunchrPolitics (@NCPoliticsUK) April 2, 2015
Survation/Mirror (winner):
DC 25
EM 25
NC 6
NF 24
NB 3
NS 15
LW 2
#GE2015 #leadersdebate
— NumbrCrunchrPolitics (@NCPoliticsUK) April 2, 2015
We also got three standard voting intention polls, the fieldwork for which was entirely before tonight’s debate. YouGov/Sun again showed the Conservatives a couple of points ahead, with each gaining a point – that matches the 37% Great Britain vote share (the correct comparator for opinion polls) that the Tories won in 2010:
YouGov/Sun:
CON 37 (+1)
LAB 35 (+1)
LIB 7 (-1)
UKIP 12 (-1)
GRN 5 (+1)
Fieldwork 1st-2nd
Highest CON since 14/10/13
#GE2015 #leadersdebate
— NumbrCrunchrPolitics (@NCPoliticsUK) April 2, 2015
Populus showed Labour two points ahead, as they now have in three of their last four polls:
Populus:
CON 32 (-2)
LAB 34 (=)
LIB 9 (+1)
UKIP 15 (=)
GRN 5 (+1)
Fieldwork 31st-1st
N=2,057
Tabs http://t.co/9VL0X9m0tp
#GE2015
— NumbrCrunchrPolitics (@NCPoliticsUK) April 2, 2015
Panelbase showed a similar picture to their last poll, though interestingly they found the smaller parties slightly higher at the expense of the big two:
Panelbase:
CON 33 (-1)
LAB 33 (-1)
LIB 7 (+2)
UKIP 17 (+2)
GRN 5 (–1)
Fieldwork 31st-2nd
#GE2015
#leadersdebate
— NumbrCrunchrPolitics (@NCPoliticsUK) April 2, 2015
Lord Ashcroft also conducted a focus group:
Ashcroft focus group (leaders on a Friday night):
DC posh dinner
EM posh dinner
NC dishes
NF pub/curry
http://t.co/gwGSV7Ywum
— NumbrCrunchrPolitics (@NCPoliticsUK) April 2, 2015
And finally, Moo does Game of Thrones:
Who will rule Westminsteros? RT for a chance to win our #GameofThrones-inspired election cards http://t.co/0aSdjGdTTs pic.twitter.com/tMxRNN9LjU
— MOO (@MOO) April 2, 2015
Due to the bank holiday weekend, there will be a few changes to the normal polling schedule. As mentioned above, the Friday Populus poll was moved forward to today, and the Monday edition will now be on Tuesday. YouGov don’t normally poll for the Sun on bank holiday Mondays but may do their normal weekend poll for the Sunday Times. Lord Ashcroft will not publish a national poll at all this weekend, but will publish another batch of marginal polls in midweek. The next poll should be Opinium for the Observer on Saturday night.
