Three weeks to go! Tonight's debate was the main talking point, and the snap Survation/Mirror poll showed showed a win for Ed Miliband ahead of Nicola Sturgeon:
Survation/Mirror (winner) EM 35 NF 27 NB 5 NS 31 LW 2 #GE2015 #BBCDebate
— Matt Singh NCP (@MattSingh_) April 16, 2015
Ipsos MORI's monthly showed a similar picture to their last poll for the Evening Standard:
Ipsos MORI/Evening Standard: CON 33 (=) LAB 35 (+1) LIB 7 (-1) UKIP 10 (-1) GRN 8 (+2) Writeup http://t.co/0Y7Ur7l3Qr #GE2015 #bbcdp
— Matt Singh NCP (@MattSingh_) April 16, 2015
MORI gross satisfaction ratings: Cameron 39 (+1) Miliband 33 (+5) Clegg 27 (+1) Farage 30 (-5) #GE2015 #bbcdp https://t.co/jJ5yDjA3wy
— NumbrCrunchrPolitics (@NCPoliticsUK) April 16, 2015
MORI is the only national phone pollster since 22nd Feb to show a Labour lead. The difference between them and other phone polls is their methodology – MORI doesn't weight by past vote, or reallocate don't knows. The tables show that the sample had 2010 recalled votes equivalent to CON 36.8, LAB 32.8, LIB 20.6, compared to the actual 2010 mainland vote shares of 36.9, 29.7, 23.6. With PV weighting and the spiral of silence adjustment LAB would be lower and other parties (especially the Lib Dems) higher. Which method is providing the most accurate snapshot of public opinion is an open question.
The poll also showed the highest Green VI in any poll for a month – 8% hasn’t been bettered since 1st Feb. It’s too soon to conclude a renewed Green surge, but it’s worth watching. Panelbase also showed a close contest, making their 6 point lead last week look even more of a blip.
Panelbase: CON 33 (+2) LAB 34 (-3) LIB 8 (=) UKIP 16 (=) GRN 4 (=) 15th-16th This was the poll that had LAB 6pts ahead last Thurs #GE2015
— NumbrCrunchrPolitics (@NCPoliticsUK) April 16, 2015
YouGov/Sun showed a dead heat:
YouGov/Sun: CON 34 (+1) LAB 34 (_1) LIB 7 (-1) UKIP 14 (+1) GRN 5 (=) Fieldwork 14th-15th NCP Daily roundup to follow #GE2015 #bbcqt
— NumbrCrunchrPolitics (@NCPoliticsUK) April 16, 2015
We also got a Lib Dem private poll from Dunbartonshire East. All usual caveats about private polling apply – the methodology was specified by the Lib Dems, it was probably cherry-picked and the sample seem to contain a disproportionate number of Indyref “No” voters. Election forecast has the SNP 22 point lead, though YouGov shows a much closer race.
#LibDems (Dunbartonshire E): SNP 33 CON 13 LAB 16 LIB 34 UKIP 1 GRN 2 9th Apr N=413 Tabs http://t.co/x8DISU8EUb VI was the SIXTH question!
— NumbrCrunchrPolitics (@NCPoliticsUK) April 16, 2015
Tomorrow we get Populus online and YouGov/Sun.
