Today we got two national polls, each showing the two main parties within a point of each other. YouGov showed Labour a point ahead, with the big two combined share up at 71%, the highest since 16th September:
YouGov/Sun: CON 35 (=) LAB 36 (+1) LIB 7 (-1) UKIP 12 (=) GRN 5 (=) Fieldwork 30th-31st Daily roundup on its way! #GE2015 #Newsnight
— NumbrCrunchrPolitics (@NCPoliticsUK) March 31, 2015
TNS, for the second poll in a row, showed the Tories a point ahead, having tended to show large Labour leads until their previous poll:
TNS: CON 33 (=) LAB 32 (=) LIB 8 (+1) UKIP 16 (-1) GRN 5 (+1) Fieldwork 26th-30th N=1,197 Tabs http://t.co/bhT04OzvMb #GE2015
— NumbrCrunchrPolitics (@NCPoliticsUK) March 31, 2015
Meanwhile in Scotland, a ComRes/ITV poll of Labour-held seats showed a 19.2% swing to the SNP. This broadly matches what Scotland-wide polls and Ashcroft's seat polls have shown, but the question is how the swings are distributed – Labour seem to be doing worse where they had more votes to start with, and seem to be underperforming UNS.
ComRes/ITV (Scot LAB seats, chg vs 2010): SNP +24.1 CON -0.5 LAB -14.3 LIB -11.8 UKIP +1.5 GRN +1.2 Swing 19.2% LAB-SNP D 26th-28th N=1k
— NumbrCrunchrPolitics (@NCPoliticsUK) March 31, 2015
We also got another London poll, this time YouGov For the Evening Standard, pretty much in line with most recent polling of the capital:
YouGov/Evening Standard (London) CON 34 (+2) LAB 45 (+1) LIB 8 (+1) UKIP 8 (-2) GRN 4 (-1) Writeup http://t.co/6YZYzQRceV #GE2015
— NumbrCrunchrPolitics (@NCPoliticsUK) March 31, 2015
And further to yesterday's announcement about the ITV debates, the detailed order was published:
Great analysis by @May2015NS on the running order for Thursday's ITV event http://t.co/Aa6jBAUPVd pic.twitter.com/H4MIwiGAX1 #GE2015 #TVdebates
— NumbrCrunchrPolitics (@NCPoliticsUK) March 31, 2015
The LSE published a piece from Jack Blumenau and Simon Hix on how fragmentation varies across the UK (Wales has the most fragmented party system, the North East the least).
And finally, General Boles’s take on Lord Ashcroft’s retirement (announced today):
.@LordAshcroft has quit the Lords to spend more time pursuing other interests. pic.twitter.com/6MD7B8QrHy
— General Boles (@GeneralBoles) March 31, 2015
Tomorrow, in addition to the daily YouGov/Sun survey, get Lord Ashcroft’s latest round of marginals polling at noon, and quite possibly some surprises too!
