So Parliament has been dissolved and the campaign is now officially underway. Today we got Great Britain polls from Populus, Lord Ashcroft and YouGov for tomorrow's Sun. All three showed the Conservatives gaining three points, making Populus and YouGov both a tie and Ashcroft a two-point Tory lead. As I predicted yesterday, it appears that the weekend YouGov poll was an outlier. Taken together, there isn’t much to substantiate a “Milibounce”, if anything things have moved a bit towards the Conservatives in today’s polls compared with the same three last Monday:
Populus: CON 34 (+3) LAB 34 (+1) LIB 8 (-1) UKIP 15 (-1) GRN 4 (-1) Fieldwork 27th-29th N=2,004 Tabs http://t.co/D7oLlCl9JZ #GE2015
— NumbrCrunchrPolitics (@NCPoliticsUK) March 30, 2015
Ashcroft National: CON 36 (+3) LAB 34 (+1) LIB 6 (-2) UKIP 10 (-2) GRN 7 (+2) Dates 27th-29th N=1,004 Tabs http://t.co/wMii9hdAQZ #GE2015
— NumbrCrunchrPolitics (@NCPoliticsUK) March 30, 2015
This week Lord Ashcroft asked his focus group what kind of house each leader would be http://t.co/A37LkxW5lq #GE2015 pic.twitter.com/5bfMz63gsU
— NumbrCrunchrPolitics (@NCPoliticsUK) March 30, 2015
YouGov/Sun: CON 35 (+3) LAB 35 (-1) LIB 8 (=) UKIP 12 (-1) GRN 5 (-1) Fieldwork 29th-30th #GE2015
— NumbrCrunchrPolitics (@NCPoliticsUK) March 30, 2015
We also got the YouGov/ITV News/Cardiff University Welsh Barometer poll, which showed very little change from the previous one, although Llafur Cymru will be happy to be back in the 40s. Normally we also get National Assembly voting intention from this poll, so keep an eye out for that. Roger Scully’s analysis of what we have so far is here.
YouGov/ITV/Cardiff Uni (Wales Westminster): CON 25 (=) LAB 40 (+1) LIB 5 (=) PC 11 (+1) UKIP 14 (=) GRN 5 (-1) 24th-27th N=1,189 #GE2015
— NumbrCrunchrPolitics (@NCPoliticsUK) March 30, 2015
ITV also commissioned a ComRes online poll of London VI. This is the first ComRes poll of the capital, so we don’t have any changes to compare. Once you take into account the house effects of YouGov, ICM and ComRes online in national polling, a 14-point Labour lead is very close to what you’d expect to see based on other London polls recently.
ComRes/ITV (London): CON 32 LAB 46 LIB 8 UKIP 9 GRN 4 N=1,000 Writeup http://t.co/sd3PuWC8T8
— NumbrCrunchrPolitics (@NCPoliticsUK) March 30, 2015
It was also announced that the lots drawn for ITV’s seven-way leader debate produced the following lineup (from left to right):
Bennett
Clegg
Farage
Miliband
Wood
Sturgeon
Cameron
And finally, the worst boyband ever:
Hilarious election mashup from @SkyNews! https://t.co/PWhjVVPazi #GE2015
— NumbrCrunchrPolitics (@NCPoliticsUK) March 30, 2015
Tomorrow we get the daily YouGov/Sun poll.
