The first poll since the budget says…

The first poll since the budget (YouGov/Times, done Wednesday night into yesterday) is out, and it doesn’t quite fit the narrative – Conservative lead increases to 19 points, a 30-year high for a Tory government:

As always, be cautious when it comes to interpreting polling right after an “event”…
There was also quite a bit of reaction to an Ipsos MORI Scottish Independence poll that showed the two sides neck-and-neck. That poll has tended to show better numbers for Yes than others have, so the swing is actually only 2%. Time will tell if that move is genuine or not.
And finally, another great episode of Polling Matters, this week on Labour and on Northern Ireland.
As the YouGov poll is already out, there shouldn’t be any more today, although there will probably be some in the Sunday papers.

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