Starting today, Number Cruncher Politics will provide frequent, independent analysis of polling developments in the run up to the election. For new readers, welcome!
So the budget is in and Twitterminster is in overdrive. I’ll leave it to others to discuss the merits of the budget and the performances of George and Ed. But what we can say is that betting exchanges reacted positively:
— Betfair Press (@BetfairPress) March 18, 2015
Polls themselves won’t show the impact just yet. YouGov’s fieldwork window is very short, from 5pm to 3pm the following day, with about two-thirds of responses in the evening. So practically all of tonight’s would have been in before the speech itself, though some would have been after the press leaks. Thursday night’s YouGov/Sun poll will have the impact of the evening news, but it won’t be until the poll their poll for the Sunday Times (out Saturday) that we get the full effect of tomorrow’s the press coverage. Last year we saw what looked like a very delayed reaction, perhaps because the annuities changes were highly technical, but wildly popular with the papers.
Fieldwork for both Opinium’s Observer poll and Friday’s Populus tends to be done Tuesday (sometimes Wednesday) to Thursday so if voting intention does move, both are likely to reflect some, but not all, of the shift.
Finally, here’s an interesting tweet from reader Tim Wilkinson (@SurelySmMistake):
— Tim Wilkinson (@SurelySmMistake) March 18, 2015
As many of you will know, this is derived from Martin Baxter’s chart over at Electoral Calculus, with sdded diagonal lines to mark popular vote leads… While there are some overly simplistic assumptions, and it’s based on maths rather than politics (eg CON-SNP coalition) it’s a very interesting graphic nonetheless.
Comments and discussion warmly welcomed!
YouGov is in:
— NumbrCrunchrPolitics (@NCPoliticsUK) March 18, 2015
So it could be a reaction to the budget leaks, or possibly a reversion to the mean – YouGov is the only pollster to show Labour ahead this week. On the exchanges, things remain tighter – punters seem to be backing the Tories more than before. We’ll find out in the coming days if they’re right…