Daily polling roundup 23rd April

Two weeks to go! Today I published an article with the LSE about the differences between phone & online polls and between new & established polls. On average, the more established polls have looked better for the Conservatives than Labour and newer polls the reverse. But there are also differences with the smaller parties…
We got four new GB polls, starting with Panelbase:

Survation/Mirror showed a four-point Conservative lead:

As did ComRes/Mail:

YouGov/Sun had Labour two points ahead:

So four very different GB polls – the average of all of them is a small Tory lead, but it still looks like a very close race.
We also got a Survation poll of Thanet South, showing Nigel Farage comfortably ahead. This contrasts with the ComRes poll showing a close three-way battle, but since the methodologies are quite different, the contrast isn’t a huge surprise. The question is who is right…

Tomorrow we get Populus Online and YouGov/Sun GB polls and probably Lord Ashcroft’s latest constituency polling. We should also get at least one other poll…

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