Scotland: SNP at an all-time high

There is an updated version of this analysis here.
It’s now been just about two months since Scotland voted on independence and those two months have been very different in the world of polling. From mid-September to mid-October, the available data showed an SNP surge from pretty much neck-and-neck with Labour to a lead of around 13 points, but we didn’t have any actual Scottish polls to corroborate it. Since then we’ve had several polls, all of which confirmed the significant swing in the SNP’s favour that we strongly suspected, but not much actual further movement!

That said, the SNP have advanced to a new all-time high of 42% on my aggregated measure. Full estimates on this measure are: SNP 42 (+1) LAB 26 (=) CON 17 (-1) LIB 6 (=) UKIP 5 (+1) GRN 4 (=). Unfortunately it isn’t possible to produce and updated estimate using the weighted measure this time. The UEA/LSE/Durham model on which it is based has undergone changes this week, which I need to reconcile in order to produce a like-for-like estimate. However as regular readers will know, the two methods have tended to track each other closely.

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