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Conservatives Archive

Pollsters overestimated ukip at the midterms elections, which may have implications for Brexit
Analysis, EU referendum

Super Thursday postmortem (and what it tells us about Brexit)

10th May 2016 | Matt Singh |
More
Number Cruncher Politics is is a non-partisan blog focussing on UK psephology, statistical analysis, opinion polls and politics
Analysis, Roundup

Super Thursday preview

5th May 2016 | Matt Singh |
More
Are the Tories really 15 points ahead of Labour?
Roundup

Are the Tories really 15 points ahead? Is Corbyn really the most popular leader?

22nd November 2015 | Matt Singh |
More
Polls since the election GB voting intention
Roundup

Who's right on Corbyn? (Plus recent polling)

17th August 2015 | Matt Singh |
More
Image: Delbert/HD Shock
Analysis

20 percent of British people are liars

16th July 2015 | Matt Singh |
More
This does not look like herding Counts of pollster/party cominations (total 55) at each sigma ±0.5, based on final call polls normalised to party means and to poll/party standard error.
Analysis

Is there evidence of pollsters herding?

25th June 2015 | Matt Singh |
More
The skew: Even more negative with equal size seats Conservative vote share minus Labour vote share required for each outcome. Dotted lines indicate theoretical boundaries. Data sources: NCP, Electoral Calculus
Analysis

Boundary changes – the devil is in the detail

19th May 2015 | Matt Singh |
More
The structural bias has never gone away
Analysis

10 days on, a look back at the "Shy Tory" prediction

16th May 2015 | Matt Singh |
More
Real votes look rather different from polls... Incumbent popular vote lead at election (y) versus linearly-weighted averages of mid term NEV leads (x). Data source: Rallings and Thrasher
Analysis

Is there a shy Tory factor in 2015?

6th May 2015 | Matt Singh |
More
Number Cruncher Politics Daily Polling Roundup 26th April
Roundup

Daily polling roundup 26th April

26th April 2015 | Matt Singh |
More
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