The Liberal Democrats have the upper hand ahead of next month’s by-election in Brecon and Radnorshire, according to a new poll by Number Cruncher Politics.
As well as being crucial for the House of Commons arithmetic, the election will be the first test at the ballot box for both the new Prime Minister and the new leader of the Lib Dems.
Topline figures, with changes from the 2017 general election result, are:
|Jane Dodds (Liberal Democrat)||43||+14|
|Christopher Davies (Conservative)||28||-21|
|Des Parkinson (The Brexit Party)||20||+20|
|Tom Davies (Labour)||8||-10|
|Lady Lily Pink (Monster Raving Loony Party)||1||+1|
|Liz Phillips (UKIP)||1||=|
The percentages do not sum to 100 due to rounding. Voting intention figures exclude non-voters, don’t knows and refusers.
The changes represent a 17% swing from the Conservatives to the Lib Dems compared with 2017. Respondents were prompted with the names of all six candidates and parties on the ballot paper.
The polling was conducted online using a modified version of Number Cruncher’s national polling methodology. A technical note is available here.
Respondents were also asked how they said they voted in May’s European Parliament elections, and the pattern of their responses closely matched estimates of the local result.
The by-election will be the first held in August since 1981, which has prompted speculation around participation. Since voters consistently overestimate their likelihood of voting, the poll is indicative of a turnout well below the 69% rating themselves 10/10 likely to vote.
Those planning to vote Lib Dem (88% say very likely) and those who voted Remain in 2016 (82%) currently show the highest levels of enthusiasm, contributing to the extent of the Lib Dem lead. Nevertheless, 1-in-7 2016 Leave voters intend to back the Europhiles at the by-election, along with around half of 2017 Labour voters.
These numbers suggest a very substantial swing to the Lib Dems, putting them in a clear lead as of mid-July. The last fortnight of the campaign, and events in Westminster, will need to go well for the Conservatives for them to have a chance of retaining this seat next month. https://t.co/ioqCCEnzmb— Matt Singh (@MattSingh_) July 20, 2019
Number Cruncher interviewed 509 adults age 18+ in the Brecon and Radnorshire constituency between 10th and 18th July. Responses are weighted by age, gender, education and likelihood to vote, to match the profile of adults living in the constituency. Image credit: Jack Pease (CC BY-SA 2.0)