This morning we've already had two new voting intention polls – ICM/Guardian shows both main parties up a point on a fortnight ago, so the Conservative lead is unchanged at 3 points. ICM also asked some Brexit-related questions, and found that leaving the customs union and not extending the transition period were each the most popular of the options presented, though the latter fairly narrowly.
Meanwhile, BMG/Independent (with fieldwork from a couple of weeks ago, immediately after Amber Ruud’s resignation) showed a tie, a fractional shift to Labour compared with April. Overall, the range remains neck-and-neck to CON+5 – BMG were at the low end of that range before and ICM were near the middle of it before.
But if the Tories’ continued poll lead is the good news for that party, our polling for CapX poll should give its supporters pause for thought. We found a public largely indifferent to free markets, with over 60 per cent thinking that ordinary working people don’t get their fair share of the nation’s wealth, and that there is one law for the rich and another for the poor.
Free market think tank The Centre for Policy Studies launches an essay collection entitled “New Blue: Ideas for a New Generation” today. Its polling by YouGov finds almost half of under-50s saying they would never vote Conservative. Robert Colville has written about it.
The latest on Lewisham is the Labour shortlist. All four of its potential candidates are ethnic minority women, and Sienna Rodgers has profiled them.
And those of you that like technical stuff should see Lewis Baston’s analysis of demographic changes in certain seats and the House of Commons Library’s briefing note on the local elections.