The answer is still no

There will not be signs saying “Vote 4 May on 4 May” because, according to Downing Street, there will not be an early general election (they also confirmed that Article 50 will be triggered on 29th March). But there will of course be plenty of other fun and games on May 4th, probably including the Manchester Gorton by-election. The Labour candidate (and favourite to be next MP) will be named on Wednesday from a shortlist announced yesterday.

Also out yesterday was the latest ICM/Guardian poll, whichh put the Conservatives 19 points ahead of Labour (45-26), though contrary to what some people were tweeting, this one didn’t actually break any records. It might have done without the (“shy Tory”) spiral of silence adjustment, which is currently boosting Labour’s recorded support, because far more 2015 Labour than Tory voters are now undecided or refuse to say how they’d vote. The underlying assumption is that these people are much likelier than not to vote Labour in the end, rather than having left without deciding where to go. Time will tell which it is, but if it’s the latter, then Labour’s vote share has further to fall.

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