So the big event is complete. ICM did an "instant reaction" poll for the Guardian, which declared Cameron the winner. Usual caveats apply – “debate” polls measure instant reaction among those that watched, but whether this feeds through into overall voting intention remains to be seen – in the US where they have far more experience of these types of event, there the link is considered weak. Update (23:32): Tom Clark has helpfully posted the tables – predictably, huge majorities of both Tory (84%) and Labour (74%) supporters thought their leader won.
Guardian/ICM (#camVmili winner instant reaction): CAM 54 EDM 46 NCP daily roundup to follow… #GE2015 #BattleForNumber10
— NumbrCrunchrPolitics (@NCPoliticsUK) March 26, 2015
YouGov’s daily poll showed the Tories a couple of points ahead:
YouGov/Sun: CON 36 (+2) LAB 34 (-1) LIB 7 (-1) UKIP 13 (+1) GRN 5 (-1) Fieldwork 25th-26th #GE2015 #BattleForNumber10 #camVmili
— NumbrCrunchrPolitics (@NCPoliticsUK) March 26, 2015
YouGov didn’t conduct a snap poll on Prime Ministerial interviews, due to the staggered format, which they feel, citing their X-Factor experience, could bias such a poll (in favour of whoever goes last).
We also unexpectedly got Panelbase’s first Britain-wide poll, with very fresh fieldwork (24th-26th March). The toplines show a 34-34 tie, very much in line with other pollsters, but a highish 15% for UKIP and only 5% for the Lib Dems, in 5th place behind the Greens. As this is their first poll, it’s not clear whether this is a house effect or something else. Anthony Wells has more on their methodology.
Panelbase: CON 34 LAB 34 LIB 5 UKIP 15 GRN 6 #GE2015 #BattleForNumber10
— NumbrCrunchrPolitics (@NCPoliticsUK) March 26, 2015
Tomorrow the only expected poll is Populus online in the morning, but as we saw today, you never know what will pop up. Additionally, the LSE is hosting a forecasting conference at which all the main forecasters are represented. NCP will be there and provide updates where appropriate – I know of at least one prominent psephologist unveiling a brand new model. The NCP model is still taking shape!
