Youth vote – Has the Green surge overtaken the Tories?

As promised in my piece last weekend, my analysis of the youth vote will be a regular feature. YouGov seem to have a young voters poll in the pipeline:

So how might it look? Before I reveal my numbers, I should point out that in response to feedback, I’ve gone with a slightly different methodology. I now calculate the historic weighting bias using a weighted (rather than a simple) average, which is more adaptive to changes in the bias. The consequences of this, as you’d expect, aren’t very big.
Using these adjustments, the 10-poll rolling average shows figures of CON 22, LAB 35 LIB 5 UKIP 13 GRN 21. So it is very, very close for second place, well within the margin of error, and has been since just before the Christmas break. Labour’s lead has increased slightly since December, with UKIP and the Lib Dems little changed.
YouGov, let’s see what you’ve got!
Update (13th Jan): Here’s what they’ve got – there is no new poll, but YouGov have published a weighted aggregation for December, showing the Greens tied with the Conservatives among under 25s for December as a whole. Essentially there was a slightly bigger swing from Labour to Green than I had previously thought, so by late December, the Greens were, in all likelihood, in second place.

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