Scotland Westminster polling update: SNP 40 (-2) LAB 25 (-1) CON 18 (=) LIB 5 (+1) GRN 6 (+1) UKIP 2 (=) OTH 4 (-1)

There is an updated version of this analysis here.
This week wasn’t quite as dramatic in Scottish polling as last, but we did at least get a Panelbase Westminster poll, so I’ll start with that before going onto my headline numbers. Panelbase are the first pollster to publish two polls since the referendum, so we can look at the changes versus a month ago, along with the measures I usually publish:

The one caveat, as John Curtice points out, the question has changed from a hypothetical general election tomorrow, to the actual one on May 7th, resulting in considerably more “don’t knows”. But the changes don’t look particularly out of line with other evidence – the SNP have gained substantially at the expense of Labour, Conservatives and Lib Dems. There are small gains for both the Greens (who Panelbase have far lower than other Scottish polling has shown) and UKIP (who they have towards the higher end of the range, though YouGov also had them at 6% last week).
In terms of the demographically-weighted estimates that I publish regularly, there is a slight pullback in SNP and Labour support, with the Greens and Lib Dems gaining, and still neck-and-neck with each other (although due to the rounding, the Greens’ headline number becomes 6% and the Lib Dems’ 5%, but they are both on very close to 5.5%).

All of these changes are within the margin of error – since these numbers are based on a rolling sample, the margin of error for week-to-week changes is bigger than the sample size would imply, due to the overlap.

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