Scotland update: SNP 41 (+2) LAB 26 (-1) CON 17 (=) LIB 5 (-2) GRN 5 (+1) UKIP 2 (-1) OTH 4 (=)

There is an updated version of this analysis here.

I’ve updated my Scottish Westminster estimates with the latest data, here is the latest demographically weighted Scottish estimate, with the YouGov aggregation for comparison:

And here is the history of the YouGov aggregation:

Both methods show the SNP and Greens gaining at the expense of Labour, and in the case of the aggregation method, also at the expense of the Lib Dems.

The difference between the two methods, which represents the weighting bias is again small, less than a point for the larger parties, so well within the margin of error.

Please see this post for an overview of the methodology.

For the latest on Scottish polling, please click here. I’ll aim to update these numbers weekly going forward.

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  • oldnat

    Great work. It’ll be fascinating to see how this compares with actual Scottish polling, though the methodologies of some may be suspect.

    Populus collecting current Party ID, and then weighting them back to 2010 estimats for their online polls seems particularly inappropriate in a volatile political climate.

    • Number Cruncher

      Thanks, I have to admit that I don’t quite get the Populus weighting, in GB-wide polling they typically have far more 2010 Tories that there actually were, whereas most pollsters have slightly too many 2010 Labour voters due to false recall. Yet their toplines come out very similar to other pollsters. That’s not to say they’re doing anything wrong, but I don’t understand it at all.