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Labour Archive

Corbyn Betfair chart
Analysis

Analysis of Corbyn’s victory

15 September, 2015 | Matt Singh |
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Looking for a late swing... Corbyn VI and other indicators with multiple data points. Data sources: YouGov, Opinium, Luke Akehurst, Anglia Ruskin LHRU, LabourList, Google, NCP
Analysis

There are two things that could stop Corbyn

10 September, 2015 | Matt Singh |
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Debate

NCP Asks: What’s your prediction for the Labour leadership?

7 September, 2015 | ffglmk2 |
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Does higher turnout really help Labour?
Analysis

Does higher turnout really help Labour?

26 August, 2015 | Matt Singh |
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Polls since the election GB voting intention
Roundup

Who’s right on Corbyn? (Plus recent polling)

17 August, 2015 | ffglmk2 |
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NCP founder Matt Singh on Bloomberg TV's "The Pulse", predicting a Corbyn victory and affirming the accuracy of YouGov's polling
Media

Matt Singh on Bloomberg TV’s “The Pulse”

14 August, 2015 | ffglmk2 |
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Labour leadership: Only the final round is close Percentage vote shares by candidate in each round. Data source: YouGov
Analysis

Corbyn leads the way

22 July, 2015 | Matt Singh |
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CLP nominations aren't a perfect indicator, but... Percentages of 2010 Constituency Labour Party nominations and first preference member votes. Data sources: LabourList, Wikipedia
Analysis

Corbyn’s chances are FAR better than odds suggest

20 July, 2015 | Matt Singh |
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Image: Delbert/HD Shock
Analysis

20 percent of British people are liars

16 July, 2015 | Matt Singh |
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This does not look like herding Counts of pollster/party cominations (total 55) at each sigma ±0.5, based on final call polls normalised to party means and to poll/party standard error.
Analysis

Is there evidence of pollsters herding?

25 June, 2015 | Matt Singh |
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The structural bias has never gone away
Analysis

10 days on, a look back at the “Shy Tory” prediction

16 May, 2015 | Matt Singh |
More
Real votes look rather different from polls... Incumbent popular vote lead at election (y) versus linearly-weighted averages of mid term NEV leads (x). Data source: Rallings and Thrasher
Analysis

Is there a shy Tory factor in 2015?

6 May, 2015 | Matt Singh |
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Number Cruncher Politics

Number Cruncher Politics

Number Cruncher Politics is the non-partisan UK polling and psephology site that predicted the 2015 opinion polling disaster. For more information please see the 'about' page or connect via social media.

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