YouGov and Ipsos MORI both had voting intention numbers out yesterday, and both of them were done about a week ago. YouGov’s figures were identical to those of its previous poll, making it the third with fieldwork in April to put the Conservatives five points ahead.
Ipsos MORI’s poll for the Standard put the Tories a point ahead, as its previous poll did, but was notable for the big jump indicated in the Lib Dems share of 10 (+4). This ties with a BMG poll from September as the highest Lib Dem print of the parliament. That said, 10 per cent is actually close to what MORI has typically shown for Vince Cable’s troops (it’s normally been 9 per cent), so the 4 point jump really just seems like a reversion to the mean after a rogue result last time.
Anthony Wells took a closer look at some of the supplementaries, including some bad numbers for just about everyone, not least this for Boris Johnson – 72 per cent of people think he doesn’t have what it takes to be a good Prime Minister, 17 per cent do. Ouch!
Yesterday’s PSA/IFG briefing was interesting as always, but without any major revelations. John Curtice reiterated his expectation – one that I share – of a divergence between London and the rest of England along similar lines to the general election result.
In the blogosphere, Mark Pack provides an interesting insight into what actually happens on polling day, while Stan Anson has compiled polling and other data on antisemitism, including our Times Red Box poll.
And speaking of our polling, there’ll be more of it out soon…