We’re right in the thick of the campaign with manifestos being launched. How much effect will they have? In truth, it’s hard ever to say. There are simply too many events and too few polls to be sure.
At first glance, the Labour launch looks to have been a success, with YouGov/Times (done Tuesday to yesterday) showing a Tory lead of just 13 points. In reality, you probably want to check back in a week to, see if the move is both real and sustained.
MORI’s poll for the Evening Standard may be out today and judging by Ben Page’s reaction to the interim numbers, it shows something pretty interesting. Tory lead down to single figures? We’ll have to wait and see…
Also, my FT colleagues have had a look at the Sussex constituency of Lewes, and this week’s Polling Matters includes a discussion of GfK’s latest poll, including another look at potential Labour leaders.