Manifesto movements (continued)

The Labour rise continues in recent polls. This would appear to be worrying pollsters more than it’s worrying Tories, given how the former are talking about the possible softness of the Labour vote while the latter plough resources into seats they’ve never won.

Perceptions and gut feel can turn out to be wrong, of course. In any case there’s some some good analysis out there (notably this from Gideon Skinner et al and this from Chris Curtis). See also John Curtice’s analysis along Remain/Leave lines.

The latest moves continue to fascinate, particularly the 8-point jump in Labour support with MORI. I explained on the FT site how this isn’t a huge surprise, given mean reversion from last month’s 34-year Labour opposition low and the moves elsewhere.

The Times has a YouGov Scottish poll, which shows extremely small changes from  last month – to the extent that there’s any discernible shift it’s the main parties gaining and the smaller parties in Scottish getting queezed.

We don’t normally get polls on a Friday, but there will be at least two out tomorrow night for the Sunday press.

I’ll be doing the FT podcast as usual today, plus a Facebook video. They’ll be on my Facebook page later, so be sure to follow!

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