Sensational, unprecedented, and that’s just the response on Twitter…

“For once, words like sensational and unprecedented do not seem out of place. Wales has been Labour for longer than any voter taking part in these elections can possibly remember. We could be just over six weeks from that near-century of one-party dominance coming to an abrupt end.”

– Professor Roger Scully, Cardiff University

 

Two years ago I was getting absurd levels of derision for suggesting that the Conservatives could win an overall majority across the United Kingdom. Some even suggested it might never happen again. Right now the Tories have a realistic chance of winning an overall majority in Wales.

It’s hard to overstate just how remarkable even this possibility this is. Wales just is Labour. Until the 2010 election, 29 of the 40 Welsh seats were Labour-held, and 3 were Tory. Even for much of the current parliament, the Conservatives were lagging their performance elsewhere in Great Britain.

YouGov’s poll for ITV News and Cardiff University’s Wales Governance Centre shows a swing of 10 per cent on 2015 to put the Tories on 40 per cent. That’s the highest share ever for the Tories in a Welsh Westminster poll, and on a 10 per cent uniform swing would be enough for 21 seats. Roger’s writeup is well worth a read as always.

It’s a sign of these extraordinary times that the ICM/Guardian GB poll with the Conservatives on 48 per cent – a higher level than that party has achieved at any general election since 1959 – was barely noticed. That’s probably because it was the fifth at that level or higher in the last week.

There are no pre-announced polls this week, but we should get updates on the Plymouth (Rallings and Thrasher) projections for the local elections on May 4th. The previous set were done prior to the general election being announced, so I genuinely have no idea what to expect today…

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