So the UK is leaving the EU and Scotland might be leaving the UK. You’ll probably see a flurry of polls on both matters over the next few days, but for the moment you’ll have to make do with noise and hot takes.
As with the apparent Tory “budget bounce” last week, it’s usually advisable to wait until things calm down and any response bias flattens out. In the Scottish polls I wouldn’t be surprised to see a Yes lead or two in the next week, just ask we saw in the immediate aftermath of the Brexit vote itself, only for things to go right back to where they were. That’s not to say they will this time, but that we won’t know immediately…
I’ll be posting further thoughts on Scotland soon, but in the meantime we do have some data – BMG for the Herald had No ahead 47-44. It also asked Scots whether they support another referendum. As Anthony Wells explains, the answers to polls on this have been mixed because the questions have been mixed but the common theme is that Scots are opposed to another referendum in the next couple of years.
The same was in evidence in a snap Sky Data poll‘s Scottish subsample, which found even stronger opposition elsewhere (GB as a whole was 65-30 against).
But what does Theresa May think? The Times apparently has information that the Prime Minister is set to block a referendum while Brexit negotiations are ongoing. That would set her and Nicola Sturgeon on a collision course and, in the short term at least, probably benefit both of them.
But what about Northern Ireland? Well, Sinn Fein today called for a border poll, but as neither London nor Dublin support one in the short term, the move is largely symbolic. But what is real is the possibility of a third election in the space of a year. Bill White of LucidTalk fame is fairly negative on unionist prospects at Stormont in the event of a new vote…
And finally, with signs of “Scoxit”, “Scexit” and even “Nirexit” becoming words, I decided to do a totally unscientific poll of my Twitter following, and by 4 to 1 (69-17) they would vote to ban portmanteaux in “-xit”. So there.