UKIP if you want to

Ahead of Thursday’s Northern Ireland Assembly election, LucidTalk has a poll out, showing the DUP narrowly ahead of Sinn Fein. I’ll be posting in detail on Northern Ireland later, but for now here’s the full poll report.

Meanwhile, after days of focus on Labour, the Westminster spotlight has been on UKIP. George Eaton has a good piece on why it’s too early to declare UKIP dead. But it could soon be dead at Westminster, with various suggestions that sole MP Douglas Carswell may be expelled from the party, or go back to the Conservatives, or even be challenged in his own Clacton seat by Arron Banks.

Clacton is interesting enough in any case, but would be doubly so in the event of a split UKIP vote, given that its majority is only about 8 per cent. And the proposed Harwich and Clacton seat, which largely replaces it, would be an absolute knife-edge Tory-UKIP marginal…

The Labour by-election postmortem isn’t finished. Adam Payne, who is local to Cumbria, has this detailed debrief on Copeland. Shadow Brexit sec Keir Starmer has taken the poll-deniers to task over the result but sees “no appetite” for another leadership contest.

The question, of course, is what happens if polls continue in the same vein. I’ll be joining Keiran Pedley and Adam Drummond for tonight’s Polling Matters to talk about exactly that.

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