Here’s what Scots want from Brexit

You’ll be pleased to hear that I’m not going to go back over yesterday’s events around Article 50, given that they’ve been covered more than adequately elsewhere. But as I’d hoped would be the case, the polling has started.

John Curtice and ScotCen used the SSA “probability panel” to ask Scots what they wanted from Brexit. As John points out in his writeup, “…it seems that despite the way Scotland voted in the EU referendum, attitudes north of the border towards the shape of Brexit are not so different after all. In particular, rather than endorsing freedom of movement, it seems that most voters in Scotland, just like their counterparts elsewhere, would like to maintain free trade but abandon freedom of movement”.

The report is very interesting and well worth reading in full, but here are a couple of the key tables. On specific “hard Brexit” policies:

And on freedom of movement versus free trade:

In GB polling we got the latest YouGov/Times poll, which had a fairly unremarkable 18-point Tory lead, but had a new highest lead for Theresa May on “best Prime Minister” question (and a new low for Jeremy Corbyn). We also got some more data from Tuesday’s GfK poll, namely a social media usage crosstab. Whereas the Conservatives lead 41-28 among all likely voters, labour leads 39-30 among Twitter users. That prompted cries of “left wing echo chamber!” but what we don’t know (and which would be interesting to know) is firstly whether the observed tilt to the left still holds among those that actively tweet about politics and secondly whether it holds once we control for Twitter users’ demographics.

And in the latest Polling Matters, Keiran Pedley gave some more commentary on his poll. Unsurprisingly, it also has plenty on Brexit and Article 50, plus Mark Diffley of Ipsos MORI Scotland on developments at Holyrood:

There are no local by-elections this week.

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