GfK poll: Corbyn as unpopular as Trump in Britain

GfK is back in the polling game. Its first conventional GB poll since the 2005 general election has a rather eye catching headline – Jeremy Corbyn’s approval rating among GB adults is the same Donald Trump’s.

The Labour leader’s gross approval rating is a point lower than the US president’s (17 per cent versus 18 per cent), while his net approval rating (approve less disapprove) is a point higher (-41 versus -42). Both of these differences are inside the margin of error.

Theresa May is in positive territory (46 per cent approval, 33 per cent disapproval) while approval of her government is evenly split (40-40).

Q6. Do you approve or disapprove of the way… The government is running the country? Theresa May is handling her job as Prime Minister? Jeremy Corbyn in handling his job as Leader of the Opposition? Donald Trump is handling his job as President of the United States?
Base 1938 1938 1938 1938
Approve 771 891 326 345
40% 46% 17% 18%
Disapprove 770 643 1115 1160
40% 33% 58% 60%
No opinion 398 404 498 433
21% 21% 26% 22%

 

Among those intending to vote Conservative, the Prime Minister scores an impressive +77 (85-8) but among current Labour voters the Leader of the Opposition is in negative territory at -1 (39-40). Corbyn is also in negative territory among every other demographic and geographic crossbreak, including gender, age, region, social grade, party, EU referendum vote and political interest.

Donald Trump’s ratings are positive with both current (+9) and 2015 (+14) UKIP voters, but negative with almost everyone else, with a low of -73 among the small subset (n=69) of Green voters.

The poll also asked about Brexit, with 46 per cent saying it was the right decision and and 41 per cent the wrong decision. This splits solidly along Remain/Leave lines – Leavers say it was right by 88-6, Remainers say it was wrong by 82-9. Both of these findings are very much in line with other recent polling.

And finally, the poll also asked voting intention. Because the fieldwork was done earlier in the month, we can compare it to other polls done at the time. A 13-point lead is at the narrower end of the range. A key reason for this is a relatively low proportion of Labour to Lib Dem switchers, which also means that the latter sits on a correspondingly low 7 per cent.

The turnout filter is based on those 8 out of 10 or above on a self-reported likelihood-to-vote scale that also reported having voted in the 2015 General Election (except for those that were too young to have done so – under 21s are simply 8 out of 10 or above).

In recent years, GfK has been better known for its part (alongside Ipsos MORI) in the broadcasters’ exit poll and the face-to-face survey element of the British Election Study, both of which have been noted for their accuracy, even in 2015. The Canary Wharf-based part of GfK in charge of UK polling was formerly NOP, and polled voting intention in the UK from 1963-2005, latterly getting all three main parties correct to the nearest per cent.

It’s good to have them back.

GfK surveyed a nationally representative sample of 1,938 GB adults aged 18+ online between March 1st and March 15th, 2017. Data were weighted to be representative of GB adults by age, gender, region and social grade. Data were also weighted by political interest, 2015 General Election vote and 2016 EU referendum vote in order to ensure a politically representative sample. GfK is a full member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules.





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