There seems to be a pattern here…

The latest batch of local by-elections saw a familiar story, with the Lib Dems making substantial gains in vote share and gaining two seats. In Fairford North (Cotswold) the swing was 30.3 per cent, while in Waterside (North Norfolk) it was “only” 12.3 per cent. Incredibly, that’s their worst result this year in any ward they had contested the previous time.

I think I’ve figured out why the Lib Dem recovery that’s clearly taking place at the ballot box isn’t feeding through into the polls. My thoughts on why (and which you should be watching) to follow…

Elsewhere there was an easy Labour hold in Corby, a UKIP gain from an independent in Tendring and a local party hold in Fylde.

In polling, an Opinium poll on past and the present Prime Minister(s) features on the latest Polling Matters. Whether you can compare a sitting PM to her predecessors is debated, but net +15 for Theresa May is, in any case, a strong number. Margaret Thatcher comes second on +5, and the four from the intervening years are all in negative territory.

YouGov had a similar poll for current political leaders (at home and abroad). Compared with November, Brits have a less unfavourable view of Donald Trump, but a more unfavourable view of Jeremy Corbyn.

And with a bit of luck we my get their weekly voting intention poll later today…

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