Labour lead by 5 points in Wales, Tories maintain GB-wide lead

Two new polls today – the first ICM/Guardian GB voting intention survey of the year, and the first Welsh barometer.

ICM showed very little change from December with both the Conservatives and Labour edging a point higher and UKIP dropping a couple of points (with only the last of these troubling the margin of error). Therefore the Tories remain 14 points ahead with ICM.

In Wales, Labour lead by 5 points in Westminster voting intention in the first YouGov/ITV Wales/Cardiff University poll of 2017. The 5 point lead is Labour’s narrowest since January 2010, and the 33 per cent share is the lowest since April 2010, when Labour were in government at Westminster.

Wales-only polling before 1997 was limited and records are incomplete. However, as far as I’m aware, this is Labour’s worst Welsh Westminster poll ever while in opposition.

The swing from 2015 (2.5% from Lab to Con) is almost identical to the swing in England, but smaller than the swing in Scotland.

As usual the Senedd voting intention numbers show a similar picture, with Labour leading by 6 points on both ballots. See Roger Scully’s writeup for full details.

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