Brexit, with the benefit of hindsight

As Brexit progresses it's interesting to keep an eye on the public view of it. But how do you ask the question?

Talking about a hypothetical second referendum is perhaps a bit too hypothetical… in any case the overwhelming majority of people on both sides would vote the same way (though this would become interesting if it were to change).

Asking people whether they're satisfied with the government's handling of Brexit risks people thinking more broadly about the government's performance, so they may unconsciously answer a different question.

So it makes sense that pollsters are asking people whether they think it was the right or the wrong decision. Last night Opinium/Polling Matters asked that – the public says it was right decision 52-38. The reason is that Remain voters are much likelier now to say they don't know, as well as some saying it was the right decision.

In Westminster by-election land the parties have been busy selecting candidates, including the Conservatives (Stoke and Copeland), Labour and the Lib Dems for Stoke.

There is one local by-election today at Kilmarnock East and Hurlford (East Ayrshire). This ward was very close between Labour and the SNP on first preferences in 2012, but given the shifts since then the nationalists have to be favourites. Whoever wins will have a very short term, as Scotland has all-out local government elections in May.

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