Brexit Forecast update: The last lap

Forecasting can be tricky at the best of times – doing it in something of a data vaccuum this late on is a headache. Despite rediscovering their appetite for interesting opinion polls, the media aren’t commissioning anything like the number they have in the past, so two days before the vote we are still faced with a huge amount of uncertainty.

Today’s data have the effect of pushing Brexit probability higher. Due to the lack of polls and lack of time left, individual polls are getting increasingly heavy weights, so the numbers may well be volatile, as they were today. So as things stand, Brexit probability has risen 6 points to 37%. The big unknown is where exactly telephone polls are – if the phone vs online wedge widens again, it’s good news for Remain, but if it stays narrow, it’s good for Leave.

Latest Brexit polls odds - UK EU referendum

And so we come down to the very final polls. We will definitely get further polls tomorrow from ComRes (at 10am), Opinium and YouGov. Ipsos MORI‘s final poll will be released on Thursday morning. We’ll presumably get one more from TNS. We aren’t expecting any further polling from Survation, ICM, BMG or ORB.

I will, if possible, provide intraday updates, though this might prove difficult given client and media commitments. Buckle up for the last lap!





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  • Bob Lawbla

    Does your model account for weather?

    Jokes aside, I would wager that rain would give a slight boost to ‘Leave’. I say this only based on past polls that showed that those 100% likely to vote tend to vote higher ‘Leave’ and those in the 70-90% likely to vote range tend to vote higher ‘Remain’.

    • Serendipity

      It could be acid rain and a mile over broken glass… If your on the LEAVE side of this debate you will get there ……

      • Bob Lawbla

        Good luck to you bud. Take back your sovereignty!