EU referendum roundup: Is Panama old hat?

After all the noise about Panama, and the damage it was meant to have done to David Cameron, Wednesday brought further polling suggesting that things have swung towards the PM (the Tories and the Remain side both gained ground), not away from him. It’s almost as though Westminster is in a bubble, obsessed with things that normal people don’t get worked up about…

TNS did a series of polls in several European countries (see this writeup from Alberto Nardelli at Buzzfeed) showing that most Europeans (at least, in the countries polled) hope and expect that Britain will vote to stay, though the French narrowly expect Brexit. In the UK section, Remain jumped into a four-point lead, compared with a dead heat in the previous TNS poll.

Ipsos MORI’s poll for the Evening Standard also showed an shift towards Remain:

As the newly updated polling average chart shows that, once you just for house effects and smooth through the noise, the trend has been pretty sideway for the Leave vote share – the movement seems to be more between Remain and don’t know. The out side isn’t where it needs to be at this stage – the Leavers need to be able to pick up weak Remainers when the in campaign is having a bad time, and try to pick up undecided voters too. But there is still time…

EU referendum opinion polls

MORI’s poll also provided some insight into the priorities of voters on each side. I say insight, but it can’t come as too much of a surprise – Leavers are more worried about immigration, Remainers are more concerned with the economy.

It’s also caused some relatively big moves in the numbers. Because there are relatively few phone polls, MORI polls have a high weighting, so the swing in the poll, compounded by the recalculation of the house effects, plus the big move in the TNS poll, between them increase the Remain lead by about a point to just under four points.

The forecast model now has Brexit probability down to a little over 21%, while the most likely outcome now has Remain moving above 56% of the final vote. The the main NCP EU referendum page for more.

Finally, tickets have gone on sale to the BBC’s referendum debate on June 21st (two days before polling day).

Update (23:50): ComRes has a poll out for the Mail and ITV News, showing an even more decisive swing toward Remain than the other two. This will be included in the average and forecast from tomorrow.





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